RESUMO
BACKGROUND: The healthcare market is facing a serious shortage of qualified personnel in 2020. Aging of staff members is one important driver of this human resource deficit but current planning periods of 1-2 years cannot compensate the demographic effects on staff portfolio early enough. Therefore, prospective human resource planning is important to avoid loss of competence. METHODS: The long range development (10 years) of human resources in the hospitals of the City of Cologne was analyzed. The basis for the analysis was a simulation model that included fluctuation of staff, retirement, maternity leave, status of employee illness, partial retirement and fresh engagements per department and profession. The model was matched with the staff requirements for each department. The results showed a capacity analysis which was used to convey strategic measures for staff recruitment and retention. RESULTS: The greatest risk for shortage of qualified staff was found in the fluctuation of doctors and in the aging work force. Without strategic human resource management the hospitals would face a 50% reduction of the work force within 10 years and after 2 years there would be a 25% deficit of anesthesiologists with impact on the function of operation rooms (OR) and intensive care units. Qualification and continuous training of staff members as well as process optimization are the most important spheres of activity for human resource management in order to recruit and retain qualified staff members. CONCLUSION: Prospective human resource planning for the OR and intensive care units can help to detect shortage of staff and loss of competence early enough to apply effective personnel development measures. A growing number of companies have started to plan ahead of the current demand of human resources. Hospitals should follow this example because the competition for qualified staff members is increasing rapidly.
